Big challenges in power supply in 2025

The growth rate of electricity consumption in the first 11 months of 2024 is at more than 10%, investment in new power sources has not had many breakthroughs, and unpredictable developments in world trade make the power supply in 2025 unpredictable.

Nhon Trach 3 & 4 Power Plants will officially operate commercially in 2025. Photo: T.H

The Ministry of Industry and Trade is really responsible for electricity

2025 is the first year that the National Power System Dispatch Center will submit its electricity supply plan directly to the Electricity Regulatory Authority of Vietnam (ERAV) and the Ministry of Industry and Trade, instead of having to go through the Vietnam Electricity Group (EVN) for review and adjustment, due to its separation from EVN. With this reality, the responsibility of the Ministry of Industry and Trade for electricity is also clearer and more substantial, instead of the burden being placed on EVN as before.

According to Decision No. 3047/QD-BCT dated November 15, 2024 on approving the National Power Supply and Operation Plan for 2025, the national power system will be operated based on Option 2 as proposed by the National Power System and Electricity Market Operation One Member Co., Ltd. (NSMO). In this option, electricity production and import are planned at 11.3% with poor hydrological forecasts, the probability of incidents is calculated at 10%...

At the same time, a contingency plan is developed with specific options to ensure electricity supply during the peak months of the dry season (from April to July 2025) and respond to unusual situations such as overlapping incidents or natural disasters.

Currently, the system has an installed capacity of about 85,000 MW and the national power system peak capacity (Pmax) in 2024 is approximately 50,000 MW. However, it is not always possible to mobilize power generation because it depends on whether there is water in the hydroelectric reservoir, how the coal-fired thermal power plant operates, whether there is sun and wind to run the solar power plant and wind power plant, or whether renewable energy sources, when operating well, do not coincide with peak electricity usage...

In fact, there was a time in 2024 when the available capacity (the capacity that can generate electricity at a certain time) of the system was not much higher than Pmax. Therefore, it is necessary to have additional new power sources every year to meet the growth rate of electricity consumption.

Therefore, if choosing the 11.3% power growth option, the system needs at least 5,000 - 8,000 MW of new power to come into operation in 2025 to have room to maneuver.

In 2025, there will be a number of traditional and reliable plants coming into commercial operation such as Vung Ang II Plant (1,330 MW), Nhon Trach 3&4 Thermal Power Plant (1,624 MW), Hoa Binh Hydropower Expansion (480 MW), Dak Mi 1 Hydropower Plant (84 MW)...

In addition, there are also renewable energy plants and some power plants invested in Laos that will sell electricity to Vietnam. Thus, the system in general can be supplemented with 3,500 - 6,000 MW of new electricity in 2025.

However, experts note that if these plants come into operation during the dry season (before July 2025), the system will be supplemented with stronger resources, because the second half of the year often has an abundance of water due to floods.

Challenges of optimizing costs and ensuring electricity

In 2024, electricity supply will be more stable than in 2023, when many localities in the North will no longer have to reduce electricity during the peak dry season. To achieve this result, there has been a change in the operation of hydropower plants in the dry season with the principle of ensuring no reduction in the capacity of hydropower reservoirs until the end of the dry season.

Based on the above reality, the operation of hydropower plants will be re-established in the direction of the lowest exploitation in the early dry season of 2025 to retain water, in order to ensure that there is still room for mobilization during the peak dry season. To compensate for hydropower plants, the mobilization of other base power sources such as coal and gas power will be increased, which means that coal and gas must be ready accordingly.

There have been cases where gas-fired power plants have committed to offloading gas, but have no commitment on electricity output, leading to not consuming all the gas, having to pay off the offload, causing losses and extremely difficult operations.

For example, Nhon Trach 2 Power Plant incurred a liability for offloading gas in 2023 of 123.13 million m3, equivalent to an obligation to pay off the gas offloading responsibility of about 42.5 million USD. With the expected electricity output in 2024, the Plant not only cannot recover the gas paid in advance in 2023, but also continues to incur an offloading obligation in 2024.

In 2025, when Nhon Trach 3 & 4 Power Plants officially enter commercial operation, they will face the reality that, due to the lack of a long-term power purchase commitment (Qc) signed in the power purchase contract, it will not be until December that Qc calculations are available to deduce the required LNG gas output.

Meanwhile, the planning for LNG delivery for the following year is started by suppliers around the world in July and must be completed in September - October of the previous year. The difference between the gas receiving planning period and the power generation plan according to the assigned Qc leads to huge financial risks for the power generation unit.

The current situation in mobilizing imported coal and LNG will lead to the issue of ensuring fuel reserves and serving stable and continuous power supply with certain challenges.

Source: baodautu.vn